Intrigues grow over possible replacement of Shettima with Kwankwaso, Ribadu, or others
Ahead of the 2027 general elections, fresh political intrigues are unfolding across Nigeria’s northern region as debates intensify over President Bola Tinubu’s potential running mate. Multiple sources within northern political circles reveal a brewing dilemma over whether Vice President Kashim Shettima should retain his place on the ticket or be replaced to shore up support in the region.
Several permutations are currently under consideration, with names such as National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, House of Representatives Speaker Tajudeen Abbas, and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso featuring prominently in ongoing discussions.
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Kwankwaso in the Spotlight
Of all the names being mentioned, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso appears to be at the centre of the most forceful lobbying. Sources close to the former Kano governor and leader of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) suggest he is not opposed to the possibility of defecting to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) if properly courted.
A political ally of Kwankwaso, who spoke anonymously, argued that Tinubu needs a more politically robust deputy to recover his waning influence in the North. According to the source, Shettima has failed to strengthen Tinubu’s political standing in the North since assuming office in 2023.
“Kwankwaso commands enormous youth support and has strong structures across northern states,” the source noted. “His energy, grassroots connection, and political pedigree make him the ideal choice to help Tinubu reclaim lost political ground in the North.”
The source further argued that with Kwankwaso as running mate, Tinubu would likely secure a stronghold over Kano State—Nigeria’s most populous voting bloc after Lagos, thus giving the APC a strategic electoral advantage.
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Political Calculations and Risks
Analysts, however, caution that while Kwankwaso’s inclusion might strengthen Tinubu’s hand in Kano, it comes with significant political risks. Professor Kamilu Fagge, a political scientist from Bayero University, warned that replacing Shettima could alienate the North-East and destabilise the APC’s support base there.
“Kwankwaso would strengthen Tinubu’s chances in Kano but weaken the party in the North-East, where Shettima hails from,” Fagge said. “Beyond Kano, Kwankwaso’s appeal is limited, and dropping Shettima could complicate matters further.”
He also flagged concerns that another Muslim-Muslim ticket—especially swapping one Northern Muslim for another—could reignite religious tensions and perceptions of marginalisation among Christian communities.
Furthermore, Fagge warned of potential personality clashes between Tinubu and Kwankwaso, citing the President’s history of strained relations with ambitious deputies.
“Kwankwaso is not known for subservience. He’s a strong-willed figure with a history of political battles, and that could create friction at the heart of governance,” Fagge noted.
Differing Views on Kwankwaso’s Value
Some northern stakeholders believe Kwankwaso’s perceived political strength is overstated. Alwalu Abdullahi, a Kaduna-based analyst, argues that Kwankwaso’s influence outside Kano is marginal and his political history is marked by conflict and defection.
“From PDP to APC, back to PDP and now NNPP, Kwankwaso’s record shows a pattern of unresolved conflicts. His appeal doesn’t extend significantly beyond Kano,” Abdullahi remarked.
Similarly, former Senator Masaud el Jilbrin Doguwa warned Tinubu against sidelining Shettima, arguing it would unsettle influential northern APC figures, particularly former governors from the North-West who played key roles in Tinubu’s 2023 victory but have been largely relegated to ministerial positions.
“Rewarding Kwankwaso could alienate loyalists like Badaru, Matawalle, Masari, and Bagudu who have been instrumental to APC’s success,” Doguwa noted.
Political Gamble for 2027
While some northern figures see Kwankwaso as a potential electoral asset, others warn that the political cost might outweigh the benefits. Tinubu’s dilemma reflects broader regional, religious, and intra-party complexities shaping Nigeria’s 2027 electoral landscape.
For now, there is no official indication from the Presidency or APC leadership that Vice President Shettima’s position is under threat. However, with mounting pressures and realignments ahead of 2027, northern permutations over Tinubu’s running mate are unlikely to fade anytime soon.